Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Bitcoin price holds $10.5K but a $30M sell wall looms overhead

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According to Cole Garner, a well-respected on-chain analyst, there is a 2,800 BTC sell wall on Binance. With Bitcoin (BTC) price currently trading at $10,700, this is equivalent to a batch of sell orders worth $30 million on just one exchange.

While it does not necessarily indicate that a market-wide pullback is imminent, it hints that a major rally remains unlikely. In the short term, BTC likely faces a low-volatility range between $10,500 and $11,000, two key support and resistance levels.

BTC/USD chart showing a 2,800 sell wall at Binance

BTC/USD chart showing a 2,800 sell wall at Binance. Source: Cole Garner, TradingLite

The max pain scenario for Bitcoin and top cryptocurrencies is playing out

In the past two years, Bitcoin recorded net negative returns in the fourth quarter. Some attribute this to cyclical movements while others suggest it is purely coincidental.

As Bitcoin heads into the fourth quarter there are several macro risks that could slow down its momentum. These factors include a highly contentious presidential election, a pandemic-induced economic slump, and the struggle of U.S. stocks.

Atop the negative fundamental factors that could apply pressure on BTC, technicals suggest the probability of a breakout remains low.

For instance, the massive sell wall on Binance is one of many technical reasons that a volatility spike is unlikely and possibly why Bitcoin price has been unable to push through the resistance level at $11,000.

A few positives are, Bitcoin has also vigorously defended the $10,500 support level in the past week and the digital asset’s technical structure and sentiment are not bearish. Rather, they are neutral and point toward an accumulation phase.

Based on the recent Bitcoin price trend and the large Binance sell wall, Garner emphasized that reaccumulation might occur. He said:

“Binance with a 2800 BTC sellwall at $11k. Unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Welcome to re-accumulation.”

Although technical factors might cause BTC to trade sideways between $10,500 and $11,000, industry executives say Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain overwhelmingly positive.

Rafael Schultze-Kraft, the chief technical officer at glassnode, said Bitcoin has “massive room to grow.”

Bitcoin Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio

Bitcoin Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio. Source: Glassnode

He cited the Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio, which shows BTC is nowhere close to marking a top. Schultze-Kraft noted:

“The Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio suggests that #Bitcoin has massive room to grow from here. It has not even started to show the sharp increase that is typical in bull markets. Current levels are a whole order of magnitude away from previous $BTC tops.”