Monday, October 26, 2020

Market Wrap: Bitcoin Tops $11.1K; Ether Traders Like $400 Options

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Bitcoin is making gains Friday while ether options traders on the Deribit exchange love $400 strikes.

  • Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $10,050 as of 20:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). Gaining 1.4% over the previous 24 hours.
  • Bitcoin’s 24-hour range: $10,834-$11,111
  • BTC above its 10-day and 50-day moving averages, a bullish signal for market technicians.

btcoct9
Bitcoin trading on Coinbase since Oct. 7.
Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s price is making gains Friday, rising as high as $11,111 on spot exchanges such as Coinbase before settling to $10,050 as of press time. 

David Lifchitz, chief investment officer for quant trading firm ExoAlpha, says another rally could occur once the price gets over $11,200, but it could be difficult to hit new 2020 highs – bitcoin’s record this year was $12,483 on Aug. 18. “The first hurdle for bitcoin lies around $11,200, the lows before the Sept. 3 drop, then $12,000 and $12,500 before trying to retake the previous highs,” he said. “So there’s still a long way to go.”

btcsinceaug
Bitcoin spot trading on Coinbase since August.
Source: TradingView

The last time bitcoin hit Friday’s $11,111 price level was back on Sept. 19. This recent run-up has been helped by exuberant market-related news, Lifchitz added. “Bitcoin was looking for a catalyst and partly found it Thursday when Square announced [it] bought … $50 million worth of bitcoin, and today when President Trump tweeted that a [COVID-19] relief financial package was back on track,” Lifchitz said. 

Read More: Bitcoin Must Now Beat $11.2K for Bull Revival, Say Analysts

Indeed, positive news, combined with short-oriented trader liquidations in the derivatives market, have helped push bitcoin higher. Over the past day, over $20 million in buy liquidations dominated the much-maligned BitMEX exchange, versus a paltry $1 million in long wipeouts, the equivalent of a margin call in the cryptocurrency world.

skew_bitmex_xbtusd_liquidations-48
Liquidations on Seychelles-based derivatives venue BitMEX in the past 24 hours.
Source: Skew

Constantin Kogan, a partner at crypto fund of funds BitBull Capital, notes spot volumes have been picking up, which could provide fuel for a further price upswing. “The spot market is very active,” he said. “From here we could see a potential bullish rise up to $13,000.” Volumes on major spot exchanges Thursday hit $371 million, much higher than the $277 million daily average over the past month. So far Friday, spot volumes are at $288 million.

skew_btc_spot__aggregated_daily_volumes-50
Daily volumes on major spot exchanges over the past month.
Source: Skew

“I’m happy to see bitcoin break $11,000,” said Henrik Kugelberg, a Sweden-based over-the-counter trader. Kugelberg said many traders will swap poorly performing alternative cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, for more bitcoin, but that trend won’t send price skyrocketing. “I do have some hope it may lie around $10,500-$11,500 during Q4 as more money will move from altcoins to bitcoin – bullish, but no bull run this year I would say.”

Ether option traders prefer $400 strikes

Ether (ETH) was up Friday trading around $364 and climbing 3.4% in 24 hours as of 20:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET). 

Read More: Opinion – Ethereum Is Manhattan and Everyone Is Moving to the Suburbs

Ether options traders on Deribit, one of the largest crypto venues in terms of daily volume, prefer betting at the $400 price point. According to Deribit data aggregated from Genesis Volility, options traders currently have over 75,741 ETH options on a $400 strike price, tops on the exchange. This is followed by 71,989 ETH on a $200 strike in second place, followed by 65,159 ETH on the $280 price point.

etherstrikes
Deribit ether options open interest by strike.
Source: Genesis Volatility

Greg Magadini, chief executive officer of Genesis Volatility, says the options market has seen a lot of $400 calls lately. “The $400 price point has become an inflection point for ETH recently,” he told CoinDesk. 

Conversely, Magadini sees lots of puts on $200, although that price level hasn’t been touched on the ether spot market since way back in May. He added that “$200 is less logical as $250 is a more tested level, but for whatever reason the market likes being short $200 puts more.”

Other markets

Digital assets on the CoinDesk 20 are mostly green Friday. Notable winners as of 20:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET):

One notable loser as of 20:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET):

  • xrp (XRP) – 0.52%

Read More: CME Sounding Out Market Demand for Ether Futures, Options

Commodities:

  • Oil was down 2%. Price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude: $40.52.
  • Gold was in the green 1.8% and at $1,927 as of press time.

Treasurys:

  • U.S. Treasury bond yields were mixed Friday. Yields, which move in the opposite direction as price, were up on the two-year, jumping to 0.157 and in the green 2.7%.
https://www.coindesk.com/coindesk20
The CoinDesk 20: The Assets That Matter Most to the Market
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