Bitcoin (BTC) is still on track to hit $180,000 in its next halving cycle, a longtime market participant said.
In a new analysis published on March 3, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, doubled down on his bullish BTC price outlook for the years ahead.
Filbfilb keeps faith in Bitcoin halving cycles
With BTC/USD approaching $30,000 but traders highly suspicious of the 2023 rally, sky-high BTC price predictions have been poorly received.
Two current $1-million forecasts, from ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and former Coinbase executive Balaji Srinivasan, respectively, continue to divide opinion in the aftermath of the 2022 crypto winter.
Considering whether either has merit, Filbfilb turned to raw math to determine some likely macro tops and bottoms for Bitcoin after its next block subsidy halving.
Due at the end of March next year, the halving will again cut the block reward paid to miners by 50%. In prior four-year cycles after previous halvings, BTC/USD has displayed patterns of behavior that continue to hold true today.
“When using Days from the Bitcoin Halving (where the inflation rate of new Bitcoins is halves); we can see that Bitcoin peaks around 368–550 days post halving and then bottoms 779–914 days post cycle,” Filbfilb summarized.
Related: Crypto winter can take a toll on hodlers’ mental health
Generating a so-called “price curve,” his analysis shows that it may be possible to get a rough idea of where BTC/USD will top and bottom in the coming halving cycles.
“By combining expected halving dates and days to cycle tops and cycle bottoms alongside extrapolated regression of price data, it is possible to use this model in predicting where Bitcoin price may reside at the peak and trough of future cycles,” he continued.
BTC price to $200,000 or more?
Thus, in line with 2013, 2017 and 2021, 2025 should see a “double top” setup, in which Bitcoin peaks above $200,000 twice.
Related: Bitcoin will hit $200K before $70K ‘bear market’ next cycle — Forecast
The corresponding bear market low a year later centers around $50,000, according to the calculations.
While acknowledging that price volatility and relative blow-off top trajectory will decrease over time, Filbfilb reasons that overall global trends toward digital stores of value will aid Bitcoin bulls.
Nonetheless, for his part, he believes that the next cycle will bring a slightly lower high than the numbers suggest — around $180,000, already in play since February.
“I recently stated $180k is the target next cycle; I will stick to that for now,” he concluded.
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