Crypto Estimator Methodology
Methodology
This calculator estimates a range of possible future values based on historical daily price changes and a simplified statistical model. It is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
What “Lower / Median / Upper” means
- Lower range (10th percentile): a conservative outcome. Historically-sampled volatility is applied, and 90% of simulated outcomes finish above this value.
- Median (50th percentile): the midpoint outcome. Half of simulated outcomes finish above, and half finish below.
- Upper range (90th percentile): an optimistic outcome. Only 10% of simulated outcomes finish above this value.
How the model is built
- We load the selected coin’s rolling daily prices from the shared local history table.
- We compute daily log returns from those prices.
- From log returns, we estimate two parameters: mean log return (μ) and volatility (σ).
- We simulate many hypothetical future paths (Monte Carlo) and report the 10th / 50th / 90th percentiles.
Limitations
- Crypto returns can include jumps, regime changes, and structural breaks.
- Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
- Data availability depends on the coin’s Binance or Coinbase Exchange trading history.